Who gains and who loses from the budget - and the impact on individuals

A rise in employer national insurance contributions and a rise in the minimum wage means businesses will be hit the hardest in the budget - but individuals will still feel a significant strain.

Ahead of the budget, Sky News visited Lowri Williams in Lancashire and the Matthewman family from Basildon, Essex.

They have very different household budgets, but are both struggling with monthly costs.

"I do feel like she's listened," said Ms Williams, who works part-time, but receives Universal Credit.

"Any increase is good for people, when they've got nothing in their pockets", she added.

However, the Matthewmans, whose household income is considered stable, said the budget hasn't changed their situation.

Tracey Matthewman had a message for Chancellor Rachel Reeves before the Labour's budget. She said: "They need to remember that there are people living in this country who don't receive any benefits and are still struggling."

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After the budget, Chris Matthewman feels Tracey's concerns haven't been addressed. He believes people who earn too much for financial assistance, but are still struggling with day-to-day spending, have not been supported.

The government has increased the minimum wage, but this won't help people earning slightly more.

"It's a relief [the budget] is not worse", Chris said. "We have to accept what it is. But [I] would have hoped for a little help with things like energy bills. It would have helped millions of people, but they haven't done anything to impact me directly."

The Matthewmans' story is far from unique.

Many in the UK may face harder times due to today's budget, while others might see small gains.

Read more on the budget:
Labour haven't delivered on their manifesto - analysis
British companies now face uphill struggle after budget

Nous, an AI-powered household bill manager, has created profiles to give a snapshot of what changes in the budget could mean for people across different income groups. These are 'Paul', a lower earner on benefits, 'Zara', a high earner and 'Oliver', a pensioner.

Low earners on benefits

Low earners will be impacted significantly.

'Paul', 28, earns £12,800 per year, amounting to £1,066.67 monthly. After contributing 5% to his pension, his take-home pay is around £1,037.81.

Although the chancellor announced that tax thresholds will rise with inflation from 2028, they still remain frozen until then.

As tax thresholds have remained frozen and not increased with the latest inflation figure, which in September 2024 was 1.7%, the continued freeze on tax thresholds could cost him £60 over the next year.

'Paul', who has one child, currently receives £44.85 a month in Universal Credit.

That 1.7% September inflation figure also informs how much Universal Credit is increased by. The increase in Universal Credit will only amount to about 8p extra a month, or 91p annually.

'Paul' takes 24 bus journeys monthly, which currently cost him £48. With the announcement of the bus fare cap increasing from £2 to £3, his bus costs will rise by £24 each month, £288 annually.

Overall, 'Paul's' monthly budget will be stretched by an extra £28.92, totalling an annual hit of £347.09, equivalent to 3% of his current salary.

High earners

'Zara', 35, has an annual salary of £120,000. After a 5% pension contribution, her take-home pay is approximately £6,273.07 per month.

The continued freeze in tax thresholds means her salary over the next year would be equivalent to £119,481. That's a loss of £519 over the course of the next year, equivalent to 0.5% of her annual salary.

'Zara' isn't directly impacted by other announcements today, but if she has assets that she chooses to sell, or wants to invest in a second property, changes to capital gains tax and stamp duty on buy-to-lets could be significant.

Pensioners

'Oliver', 78, relies on a full state pension of £958.53 per month and has no other income or benefits.

With no dependents, his monthly expenses are limited; he spends £20 on bus journeys, making about 10 trips a month.

The bus fare rise from £2 to £3 means an extra £10 monthly or £120 annually for travel.

Although he will lose £200 in winter fuel payment support, the triple lock on pensions will remain in place which will see him receive £460.69 more over the year, leaving Oliver £140.09 better off in total, which is equivalent to 1% of his annual pension income.

Workers on minimum wage

People on minimum wage could also be among the small group of winners.

The minimum wage is set to increase from £11.44 to £12.21 per hour, a 6.7% boost. For a full-time worker on 37.5 hours per week, this change translates to an annual salary of £21,972, an increase of £1,378 from £20,592.

However, the tax threshold freeze means a £60 hit for those at this income level.

People on benefits could see a clawback of this additional income through reduced entitlements.

Lalitha Try, an economist at the Resolution Foundation, previously told Sky News: "Our research shows that the minimum wage has boosted living standards for lower-income families over the past 25 years. But it's important to remember that Universal Credit reductions mean more than half of the wage gains will be lost. The minimum wage can't address issues for those with low hours or high housing costs. Other policies are needed to solve those challenges."

The rise of the minimum wage also doesn't address people earning just above that amount but still struggling.

At People's Park in Grimsby, Sky News spoke to NHS worker Rea Aldred, who was with her daughter.

"They say these things and make these promises, but you just never feel it makes much difference," said Rea.

"Everything is just way too expensive - I agree obviously with finding the money for the minimum wage rises but for anyone just above that, they are still just where they were - the bills will still go up."

The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling, we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.

(c) Sky News 2024: Who gains and who loses from the budget - and the impact on individuals